This paper proposes a methodology for default probability estimation for low default portfolios, where the statistical inference may become troublesome. The author suggests using logistic regression models with the Bayesian estimation of parameters. The piecewise logistic regression model and...

In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The novelty of this model stems from the fact that the...

The logistic specification has been used extensively in non-Bayesian statistics to model the dependence of discrete outcomes on the values of specified covariates. Because the likelihood function is globally weakly concave estimation by maximum likelihood is generally straightforward even in...

A novel spatial autoregressive model for panel data is introduced, which incorporates multilayer networks and accounts for time-varying relationships. Moreover, the proposed approach allows the structural variance to evolve smoothly over time and enables the analysis of shock propagation in...

The paper is devoted to discussing consequences of the so-called Frisch-Waugh Theorem to posterior inference and Bayesian model comparison. We adopt a generalised normal linear regression framework and weaken its assumptions in order to cover non-normal, jointly elliptical sampling...

In this essay, I argue about the relevance and the ultimate unity of the Bayesian approach in a neutral and agnostic manner. My main theme is that Bayesian data analysis is an effective tool for handling complex models, as proven by the increasing proportion of Bayesian studies in the applied...

This paper analyzes the determinants of Spain's macroeconomic fluctuations since the inception of the euro in 1999, with a special attention to observed growth and inflation differentials with respect to the rest of the European Monetary Union (EMU). For that purpose we estimate the Banco de...

This chapter proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH-type models. The emphasis is put on a novel efficient procedure named AdMitIS. The methodology automatically constructs a mixture of Student-t distributions as an approximation to...