We develop a formal statistical approach to investigate the possibility that leading indicator variables have different lead times at business cycle peaks and troughs. For this purpose, we propose a novel Markov switching vector autoregressive model, where economic growth and leading indicators...

We obtain invariant expressions for prior probabilities and priors onthe parameters of nested regression models that are induced by aprior on the parameters of an encompassing linear regression model.The invariance is with respect to specifications that satisfy anecessary set of assumptions....