Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...

This paper provides an analysis of the asymptotic properties of consumption allocations in a stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumers. In particular we investigate the market selection hypothesis, that markets favor traders with more accurate beliefs. We show that in any...

We characterize prior-by-prior Bayesian updating using a model proposed by Gilboa, Maccheroni, Marinacci and Schmeidler (2010) that jointly considers objective and subjective rationality. These rationality concepts are subject to the Bewley unanimity rule and maxmin expected utility,...

This paper examines the relationship between Knightian uncertainty and Bayesian approaches to entrepreneurship. Using Bewley's formal model of uncertainty and incomplete preferences, it demonstrates that key predictions from Bayesian entrepreneurship remain robust when accounting for Knightian...

This paper examines the impact of a commonly experienced adverse cognitive state on decision making under uncertainty. Specifically, we administer an at-home sleep restriction protocol combined with random assignment to the time-of-day for decision making. Thus, we induce sleepiness in our...

Our lab experiment offers new insights on Bayesian probability updating and the effects of group discussion on risk decision making. We exploit a within-subject experimental setting based on Bougheas et al. (2015). We find that the majority of participants react to conflicting signals in a...

This paper examines the impact of a commonly experienced adverse cognitive state on decision making under uncertainty. Specifically, we administer an at-home sleep restriction protocol combined with random assignment to the time-of-day for decision making. Thus, we induce sleepiness in our...