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prior into a posterior at each date and gives the policy maker an incentive to experiment. For a model calibrated to U … outcomes from two Bellman equations, the first of which embodies a `experiment and learn' setup, the second of which embodies a … `don't experiment, do learn' view. We interpret the second as an example of an `anticipated utility' model and study how …
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We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
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This paper compares Bayesian decision theory with robust decision theory where the decision maker optimizes with respect to the worst state realization. For a class of robust decision problems there exists a sequence of Bayesian decision problems whose solution converges towards the robust...
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