When asset returns are unstable, investment performance directly depends on learning about their patterns optimally. Without optimal learning, strong investment performance is not possible. Yet, optimal learning is often considered too complex for investors to achieve. In order to test this...

Neoclassical finance assumes that investors are Bayesian. In many realistic situations, Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change randomly, while payoffs are observable only when invested. In a stylized version of the task, we wondered whether...