We describe a method to improve credit portfolio models based on the Merton model by adding to the underlying distributions forward-looking tails deducted through the Bayesian Networks technology. Given the forward-looking stance of the approach, its results give a better quanti ed picture of...

In this paper, we will aim to show the application of Bayesian Nets to the study of a major political event and its consequences. The selected event is the Scottish Independence Referendum in 2014. The power of Bayesian Nets allows to extend the cognitive depth of the analysis compared to what...