This paper suggests a new normative approach for combining beliefs. We call it the evidence-first method. Instead of aggregating credences alone, as the prevailing approaches, we focus instead on eliciting a group's full probability distribution on the basis of the evidence available to its...

Probability forecasts of binary events are often gathered from multiple models and averaged to provide inputs regarding uncertainty in important decision-making problems. Averages of well calibrated probabilities are underconfident, and methods have been proposed to make them more extreme. To...