We examine whether the "Level-k" model of strategic behavior generates reliable cross-game predictions within an individual. We find no correlation in subjects' estimated levels of reasoning across two families of games. Furthermore, estimating a higher level for Ann than Bob in one family of...

We simulate a horse race between several behavioral models of play in one-shot games. First, we find that many models can lead to identical predictions, making it impossible to select a unique winning model. This is largely avoided by comparing only two models. But even then we find that...

This paper presents a reconciliation of the three distinct ways in which the economic literature has defined overconfidence: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance, (2) overestimation of one's performance relative to others, and (3) overestimation of the quality of one's private signals....