We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These expectations at different horizons reveal what investors think their own short-term expectations will be in the future, or forward return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term...

Divergence in investor beliefs is an important driver of the negative relation between option trading volume and future stock returns. We find a strong negative relation between disagreement-based option trades and future stock returns, and this relation is markedly amplified when the underlying...

We show how specific features of the microstructure information from VPIN and DPIN can volatile the futures market and can link with the price discover and investor sentiment. We develop an investor (institutional, noise, and both) sentiment index for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50)...

In electronic, liquid markets, traders frequently change their positions. The distribution of these trader position changes carries important information about liquidity demand in the market. From this distribution of trader position-changes, we construct a marketwide measure for intraday...

By employing the modified net buying pressure as a measure of informed option trading, this study tested whether option trading around quarterly earnings announcements is either directionally motivated and/or volatility motivated. We found evidence that is consistent with the idea that option...

Recent evidence shows that investor sentiment is a contrarian predictor of stock returns with speculative stocks earning lower (higher) future returns than safe stocks following high (low) sentiment states. We extend this argument by conditioning expected stock returns on sentiment dynamics and...

Deep learning methods, which can accommodate wide ranges of various stock characteristics to identify optimal investment portfolio or stochastic discount factor (SDF), have been criticized for extracting their superior performances from difficult to arbitrage stocks, high limits-to-arbitrage...

This paper develops a new method to calculate hedged returns on model-free “equity VIX” option portfolios. Our returns are highly correlated with realized variance minus implied variance. Compared to CBOE’s VIX formula, our formulas are more accurate for both simulated and actual prices,...

Learning the pre limited liability value process of equity claims and its relationship to the stock price is an answer to the financial jeorpardy question when observed option prices are the answer being given by the market. Constant dollar equity holder values, prior to the imposition of...

We propose a measure of investors' climate sentiment by performing sentiment analysis on StockTwits posts on climate change and global warming. We find that when investors' climate sentiment is high, emission stocks are relatively overpriced. Moreover, we show that an increase in carbon prices...