Using proprietary data on millions of trades by retail investors, we provide the first large-scale evidence that retail short selling predicts negative stock returns. A portfolio that mimics weekly retail shorting earns an annualized risk-adjusted return of 9%. The predictive ability of retail...

This study shows that exchange-traded fund (ETF) misvaluation — based on return differentials between ETFs and their net asset values (NAV) — comove excessively across ETFs. Excess comovements are positive (negative) and significant across ETFs in similar (distant) investment styles. Further...

This paper examines the patterns of trading behaviour, in the period surrounding monetary policy announcements. Utilizing a high-frequency data-set, with broker identifiers enabling classification of trades executed through institutional and retail brokers, I investigate all trades submitted on...

Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market...

I investigate whether or not the multi-period trades of financial institutions cause mispricing in the stock market. After controlling for the magnitude and trends in institutional trades, I find evidence consistent with institutional trades pushing prices away from fundamentals. Stocks heavily...

We find that the acceleration and deceleration patterns of historical prices are predictive of future expected returns in momentum investing in the U.S. equity market from 1962 to 2014. Winners with accelerated historical price increases deliver higher future expected returns and losers with...

I investigate whether the relation between investor sentiment and profitable trading strategies is due to short sale constraints. I find that the average security in these strategies is not hard-to-short. Furthermore, the short leg does not appear to be harder to short or more overvalued than...

Recent evidence suggests that there is strong relation between investor sentiment and cross-sectional anomalies. However, I present evidence of a weak relation between cross-sectional anomalies and investor sentiment. Using a larger collection of cross-sectional anomalies, I find that only a...

We discuss the finding that cross-sectional characteristic based models have yielded portfolios with higher excess monthly returns but lower risk than their arbitrage pricing theory counterparts in an analysis of equity returns of stocks listed on the JSE. Under the assumption of general...

From 1992 to 2011, average R2 increased from 0.17 to 0.47. During this period, passive financial institutions also grew their ownership from 30 to 50% of the market. Passive investors do not perform fundamental research nor trade around firm-specific news, thus reducing the firm-specific...