This book provides a comprehensive guide to market timing using moving averages. Part I explores the foundations of market timing rules, presenting a methodology for examining how the value of a trading indicator is computed. Using this methodology the author then applies the computation of...

Despite the ever-growing interest in trend following and a series of publications in academic journals, there is still a great shortage of theoretical results on the properties of trend following rules. Our paper fills this gap by comparing and contrasting the two most popular trend following...

Even though the VIX index was intended to be a measure of future volatility of the stock market, researchers argue that in reality VIX measures the investor sentiment. Anecdotal evidence suggests that peaks in VIX coincide with stock market bottoms followed by rallies, yet so far there have been...

A vast body of empirical literature documents the existence of short-term momentum and medium-term mean reversion in various financial markets. By contrast, there is still a great shortage of theoretical models that explain the presence of these two common phenomena. We develop a semi-Markov...

In this paper, we provide new evidence to strengthen the investor overreaction hypothesis by examining a new context that has not been explored before. Our research is inspired by the widely held belief that investor sentiment experiences abrupt changes from optimism to pessimism as the market...