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We investigate long-run stock-bond correlation using a model that combines the dynamic conditional correlation model with the mixed-data sampling approach and allows long-run correlation to be affected by macro-finance factors (historical and forecasts). We use macro-finance factors related to...
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We predict bond betas conditioning on a number of macro-finance variables. We explore differences across long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, and high yield corporate bonds. We conduct out-of-sample forecasting using the new approach of combining predictor variables...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934945
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The paper investigates the effect of interest rate variance on the shape of the yield curve using a bivariate 2-state Markov switching model for the short rate changes and the yield curve slope. The two states are characterized by the variance of the short rate changes: Low and high variance. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014120001
This paper adopts quantile regressions to scrutinize the realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. The paper provides in-sample and out-of-sample analysis and considers factors constructed from a large number of macro-finance predictors well-know from the return...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013069344
I investigate the time variation in the integration of EU government bond markets. The integration is measured by the explanatory power of European factor portfolios for the individual bond markets for each year. The integration of the government bond markets is stronger for EMU than non-EMU...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013065853
We analyze the risk-return trade-off for international (France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, UK, and US) government bond markets and the US stock market. We measure risk by the higher order moments (volatility, skewness, and excess kurtosis) as they are defined in Savva and Theodossiou (2018)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014238947
Severe simultaneous recessions are defined to occur when at least half of the countries under investigation (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) are in recession simultaneously. I pose two new research questions that extend upon stylized facts for US recessions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114667
I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately. Two, a novel multivariate classification scheme that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062344