The concept of causality introduced by Wiener (1956) and Granger (1969) is defined in terms of predictability one period ahead. This concept can be generalized by considering causality at a given horizon h, and causality up to any given horizon h [Dufour and Renault (1998)]. This generalization...

We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We find that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the...

This paper presents the main improvements carried out to the macroeconometric model MZE since its creation in 2003. We have back-calculated the series over the period 1980-1995, in order to make the model more stable. To our knowledge, this paper is the first application of Kllians (1998) method...

This paper examines the relationship between increasing budget deficits and tax rate for Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger and Togo. This investigation is based on Johansen cointegration approach and Granger causality tests. The findings suggest firstly that these variables are not cointegrated for...

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a widely applied nonparametric method for comparative evaluation of firms’ efficiency. A deficiency of DEA is that the efficiency scores assigned to each firm are sensitive to sampling variations, particularly when small samples are used. In addition, an...

Managers wish to verify that a particular engineering design meets their require- ments. This design's future environment will differ from the environment assumed during the design. Therefore it is crucial to determine which variations in the envi- ronment may make this design unacceptable. The...

Abstract: This paper investigates two related questions: (1) How to derive a confidence interval for the output of a combination of simulation inputs not yet simulated? (2) How to select the next combination to be simulated when searching for the optimal combination? To answer these questions,...

This article uses a sequentialized experimental design to select simulation input com- binations for global optimization, based on Kriging (also called Gaussian process or spatial correlation modeling); this Kriging is used to analyze the input/output data of the simulation model (computer...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has been adopted as the cornerstone and common language of risk management by virtually all major financial institutions and regulators. However, this risk measure has failed to warn the market participants during the financial crisis. In this paper, we show this failure may...

Our study analyses stochastic convergence of relative real GDP per capita in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) in the period 1960 to 2010. It highlights the importance of considering structural breaks and cross-section dependence in the panel unit root tests. Using the panel...