The purpose of this paper is to develop the methodology that allows the inclusion of a technology variable in multi-market welfare models. We compare the price induced welfare effects obtained from a multimarket technology-inclusive model, a multimarket technology-exclusive model and a...

Managers wish to verify that a particular engineering design meets their require- ments. This design's future environment will differ from the environment assumed during the design. Therefore it is crucial to determine which variations in the envi- ronment may make this design unacceptable. The...

Abstract: This paper investigates two related questions: (1) How to derive a confidence interval for the output of a combination of simulation inputs not yet simulated? (2) How to select the next combination to be simulated when searching for the optimal combination? To answer these questions,...

This article uses a sequentialized experimental design to select simulation input com- binations for global optimization, based on Kriging (also called Gaussian process or spatial correlation modeling); this Kriging is used to analyze the input/output data of the simulation model (computer...

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has been adopted as the cornerstone and common language of risk management by virtually all major financial institutions and regulators. However, this risk measure has failed to warn the market participants during the financial crisis. In this paper, we show this failure may...

Kriging is a popular method for estimating the global optimum of a simulated system. Kriging approximates the input/output function of the simulation model. Kriging also estimates the variances of the predictions of outputs for input combinations not yet simulated. These predictions and their...

This paper develops a consistent bootstrap estimation procedure to obtain confidence intervals for nonparametric measures of productive efficiency. Although the methodology is illustrated in terms of technical efficiency measured by output distance functions, the technique can be easily extented...

When production functions are estimated as frontier functions, the deviations from the frontier can be interpreted as individual inefficiency estimates. Unfortunately, it has recently been shown that efficiency differences across individuals are very often statistically insignificant. In this...