This paper develops a two-step method to estimate the influence of non-deterministic factors in production on subsequent food prices, and finds that non-deterministic factors of wheat production do significantly affect both wheat and corn prices in the world and, however, those of corn do not.

In this thesis, so far insufficiently considered characteristics of long-run equilibriums in food markets are investigated. For this purpose, multivariate time series methodologies, which were developed for the estimation of long-run relationships by allowing for causality and convergence, are...