The aim of this article is to estimate a Bayesian factorial dynamic model for the analysis and forecasting of the Brazilian tax burden (BTB) using monthly data from 1996 to 2007. Twenty taxes are responsible for about 80% of the BTB, each of which with a distinct seasonal pattern The factorial...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

Taxes levied by Brazil's 5.563 municipalities are significant components of the country's aggregate gross tax burden. However, official high-frequency aggregate data on these revenues are unavailable as of this moment. This paper develops a methodology for estimating them. Two procedures are...

This paper presents a simplified methodology for estimating quarterly figures for both the Brazilian government transfers and net aggregate tax burden in the 1995-2007 years. It also describes the main stylized facts observed in the data in this period, calling attention to the fact that...

Esse artigo apresenta uma metodologia simplificada de estimação da carga tributária brasileira em níveis trimestrais, detalha os problemas práticos enfrentados na implementação dessa última (por volta de dezembro de 2006) e, por fim, apresenta (e discute brevemente) as estimativas da...

This article presents various econometric specifications - most notably Markov- Switching models - for the "fiscal reaction function" of the Brazilian consolidated public sector after the 1994 ?Real Plan?. The results reported here strongly suggest that a major structural break has happened in...