Using surveys of foreign exchange expectations, we document the emergence of a large gap between the beliefs of foreign banks and local-based institutions ahead of Brazil's 2002 presidential elections. That period was marked by a sudden stop in foreign capital flows and steep depreciation of...

Der Beitrag analysiert die Argentinien-Krise, vergleicht die makroökonomische Entwicklung von Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile und Mexiko seit der Mexiko-Krise und entwickelt Indikatoren zur Beurteilung der Entwicklungschancen dieser Länder. Für Argentinien wie für Brasilien, Chile und Mexiko...

This text evaluates the empirical models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR), comparing the resulting estimates regarding goodness-of-fit, robustness to outliers, and smoothness. In addition to the descriptive statistics on these metrics, the Friedman test and the multiple comparison...

This paper investigates the main sources of instability in Brazil during the currency and financial distress episode of 2002. We test for financial contagion from the Argentine crisis and the high yield market in developed countries as well as for political uncertainty arising from the Brazilian...

In third generation currency crises models, balance sheet losses from currency depreciations propagate the crises into the real sector of the economy. To test these models, we built a firm-level database that allowed us to measure currency mismatches around the 2002 Brazilian currency crisis. We...

The present study estimates the reactions to surprises in announcements of macroeconomic variables for two yield curves of the Brazilian market: the yield curve in foreign currency, the U.S. dollar, which is known in the jargon of the Brazilian market as the over-libor curve, and the Credit...

Even in a floating foreign exchange rate regime monetary authorities sometimes intervene in the currency market due to liquidity demand and foreign exchange crisis. Typically, central banks intervene using foreign currency trades and/or changing domestic interest rates. We discuss this framework...

Studies dealing with currency crisis prediction are often vulnerable to data mining and perform poorly when tested on out-of-sample data. This paper suggests an artificial neural network approach to predicting speculative attacks. The properties of the multilayer perceptron are used to develop a...

This article analyses whether exchange rate pressures and speculative attacks against the Brazilian currency during the period of exchange rate anchorage resulted from imbalances in economic fundamentals. An alternative methodological approach is used to test whether the deterioration of...