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We provide heterogenous agent foundations for regime-switching tests of asset price bubbles, and illustrate by applying the models to historical U.S. stock market data. While the tests remain unchanged, we show the specification of regimes can be based on the beliefs of investors that come from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079949
We find that incorporating nonlinearities into tests of asset price bubbles has important consequences for the results. We show this by comparing four tests using S&P 500 data. Our results indicate that the modification which incorporates nonlinear probabilities outperforms the other models in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013044861
We estimate three different models of speculative behaviour using oil price data. There are two major results: (i) The three-regime model of Brooks and Katsaris (2005) and a three-regime variant of van Norden and Schaller (2002) fit the oil price data reasonably well; and (ii) Both models show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009153468
We find that incorporating nonlinearities into tests of asset price bubbles has important consequences for the results. We show this by comparing four tests using S&P 500 data. Our results indicate that the modi fication which incorporates nonlinear probabilities outperforms the other models in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014145298
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We conduct a pseudo real-time analysis of the existence and severity of speculative bubbles in eleven US sectors over the period 1973-2015. Based on the real-time bubble signals, a trading strategy is constructed which switches funds between the market index and those industry sectors that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968410
This paper investigates the existence of speculative bubbles in the US national and 21 regional housing markets over three decades (1978-2015). A new method for real-time monitoring exuberance in housing markets is proposed. By taking changes in the macroeconomic conditions (such as interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968629