The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts...

The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of...

"Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period." ; Remarks before the...

Remarks before the Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, March 30, 2010 ; "Generally, the data indicate that we will move down the field this year at about a 3 percent clip. It is less than we had grown accustomed to in the heyday before the crisis, and it may not...

"While it appears urgent, if not agreeable, to use massive public spending to stimulate an economy under duress, an economy cannot sustain long-term growth under the weight of significant fiscal burdens." ; Remarks before the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas, February...

Remarks before the Equipment Leasing and Finance Association Financial Institutions Conference, Irving, Texas, April 16, 2007 ; "Yes, we remain the biggest player on the global stage, but if we fail to get our fiscal house in order, we could bequeath our descendants unconscionable debt and slow...

"While it appears urgent, if not agreeable, to use massive public spending to stimulate an economy under duress, an economy cannot sustain long-term growth under the weight of significant fiscal burdens." ; Remarks before the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas, February...

"Even the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period." ; Remarks before the...