The first monetary theory of the Great Depression is often credited to Milton Friedman. Advanced to counter the idea that the Great Depression resulted from inherent capitalistic instabilities, Friedman's theory attributed the Depression to policy mistakes by an inept Federal Reserve Board. More...

I extend the model of Laubach and Williams (2003) by introducing an explicit role for the financial cycle in the joint estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By incorporating the financial cycle - arguably an...