Why has U.S. inflation failed to accelerate despite six years of continuing economic expansion. The authors investigate whether compensation growth has played a role, either as a temporary restraint on inflation or as the underlying source of a new inflation regime. They offer two pieces of...

The New York–New Jersey region entered a pronounced downturn in 2008, but the pace of decline eased considerably in spring 2009 and then leveled off in July, according to three key Federal Reserve Bank of New York economic indexes. These developments, in conjunction with a growing consensus...

This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and post-war U.S. business cycle fluctuations. We develop a generalized Markov switching model of output that includes a measure of net real oil price increases and examine the capabilities of this variable to generate shifts in the...