A significant obstacle to studying business cycle properties of job polarization has been the presence of inconsistencies in aggregate employment data for different occupation groups. In order to overcome this problem, we construct aggregate hours series using the method of 'conversion factors',...

This paper develops a new non-linear model to analyse the business cycle by exploiting the relationship between the asymmetrical behaviour of the cycle and leading indicators. The model proposed is an innovations form of the structural model underlying simple exponential smoothing that is...