We propose an augmented version of the RBC model that can take into account the existence of lags in observation of demand shocks. This hypothesis seems to be a good framework to account for inventories fluctuations. We find some evidence showing the introduction of lag in observation as well as...

We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher-order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the...

We enrich workhorse macroeconomic models with a mechanism that proxies strategic uncertainty and that manifests itself as waves of optimism and pessimism about the short-term economic outlook. We interpret this mechanism as variation in confidence and show that it helps account for many salient...