We estimate the effects of initial labour market entry conditions on a range of subsequent job outcomes for men and women who entered the British labour market between 1991 and 2009, using data from the British Household Panel Survey and its successor Understanding Society. We find that the...

Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...

The job search literature suggests that on-the-job search reduces the probability of unemployed people finding a job. However, there is little evidence that employed and unemployed job seekers are similar or apply for the same jobs. We compare employed and unemployed job seekers in terms of...

We use data from the youth component of the British Household Panel Survey to examine how educational attitudes and aspirations among 11-15 year olds vary across the business cycle. We find that the impact of the local unemployment rate on children's attitudes and aspirations varies...