Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- PART I: INTRODUCTION -- 1. Questions about Business Cycles -- PART II: BUSINESS CYCLE DURATIONS -- 2. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized? -- 3. Shorter Recessions and Longer Expansions -- 4. A Nonparametric Investigation of...

We study the real-time signals provided by the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index of Business conditions (ADS) for tracking economic activity at high frequency. We start with exit from the Great Recession, comparing the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs to a "final" late-vintage chronology. We...

We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the...

We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find...