We propose a new approach to predictive density modeling that allows for MIDAS effects in both the first and second moments of the outcome. Specifically, our modeling approach allows for MIDAS stochastic volatility dynamics, generalizing a large literature focusing on MIDAS effects in the...

This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a...

Studies of bond return predictability find a puzzling disparity between strong statistical evidence of return predictability and the failure to convert return forecasts into economic gains. We show that resolving this puzzle requires accounting for important features of bond return models such...