We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age...

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed...

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germany's pre World War I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time series data than historical national accounting. To investigate industrialization we propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...

Die COVID-19-Pandemie führt weltweit zu einem starken Konjunktureinbruch. Die vom Bundesrat Mitte März verordneten Massnahmen zur Eindämmung der Ansteckungen mit dem Sars-Cov-2-Virus haben die wirtschaftliche Aktivität in der Schweiz weiter eingeschränkt. Inzwischen ist die Ansteckungsrate...