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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions: A mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach

Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 10 (2016) 2016-27, pp. 1-20

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555275

Deutsche Industrie kommt mit Schwung aus der Krise

Lucke, Dorothea - In: DIW Wochenbericht 77 (2010) 47, pp. 13-20

Fast alle Branchen der deutschen Industrie haben in diesem Jahr kräftig expandiert. Die Produktion im produzierenden Gewerbe ohne Baugewerbe wird im Jahresdurchschnitt um knapp neun Prozent höher sein als 2009. Die schnelle und kräftige Erholung beruht auch darauf, dass Deutschland im...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011602267

Business cycle correlation between the Euro area and the Balkan countries

Gouveia, Sofia - In: International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied … 7 (2014) 1, pp. 33-49

This paper examines the degree of trade integration and business cycle synchronisation between eight Balkan countries and the Euro area over the period 2000:1-2011:4. The main findings are that Slovenia and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia exhibit a high level of openness relative to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011310264

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political and Social Thought

Hillinger, Claude - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2 (2008) 2008-2, pp. 1-70

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295300

Market and political power interactions in Greece: An empirical investigation

Kollintzas, Tryphon; Papageorgiou, Dimitris; Tsionas, … - In: IZA Journal of Labor Policy 7 (2018) 1, pp. 1-43

In this paper, using a dynamic panel of 21 OECD countries, we find that, unlike the other OECD countries in the sample, wage setting institutions, competition conditions, public finances, and external imbalances can account for the behavior of the public sector wage premium (WPR) and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011986208

Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey; Jóhannsdóttir, Hildur … - In: Health Economics Review 7 (2017) 12, pp. 1-17

How business cycles affect income-related distribution of diseases and health disorders is largely unknown. We examine how the prevalence of thirty diseases and health conditions is distributed across the income spectrum using survey data collected in Iceland in 2007, 2009 and 2012. Thus, we are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011803095

Are "fair" wages quantitatively important for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?

Vasilev, Aleksandar - In: Review of Economic Perspectives 20 (2020) 1, pp. 91-105

We introduce "fair" wages in a general-equilibrium model where worker's effort is unobservable and investigate whether … internalize the effect that past wages have on the current effort level. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data (1999-2016), and … quantify the effect of technological shocks on hours and wages in the theoretical setup. Overall, the calibrated model with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012384140

Business cycle drivers in Nigeria: Some insights from an estimated DSGE model

Omotosho, Babatunde S. - In: West African Journal of Monetary and Economic Integration 19 (2019) 1, pp. 1-34

This paper develops a two-agent New Keynesian model, which is suitable for identifying the drivers of business cycle fluctuations in small open, resource-rich, resource-dependent emerging economies. We confront the model with Nigerian data on eleven macro-economic variables using the Bayesian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362915

From He-Cession to She-Stimulus? The labor market impact of fiscal policy across gender

Bonk, Alica Ida; Simon, Laure - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 13 (2022) 1, pp. 309-334

cyclicality of their employment and wages relative to women's. We study the extent to which fiscal policy may offset or worsen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496052

CO2 emissions and energy technologies in Western Europe

Barrera-Santana, J.; Marrero, Gustavo A.; Puch, Luis; … - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 12 (2021) 2, pp. 105-150

In this paper, we investigate the path to the green transition in Europe. In so doing, we implement an empirical model of dynamic panel data on a sample of sixteen Western European countries over the period 1980 to 2019. The model is consistent with various features of neoclassical growth theory...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014496110