A study of the effects of expectations and central bank credibility on the economy's dynamic transition path during a disinflation. Using a version of the Fuhrer-Moore model, it compares simulations under different specifications that vary according to the way expectations are formed and the...

This paper exploits business cycle asymmetry observed in data, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between the output and the interest rate spread across expansionary and contractionary periods in forecasting monthly industrial production. A bivariate model of monthly...

This paper investigates whether an asymmetry is present in the Granger-causal relationship between output and a set of interest rates and their spreads, across expansionary and contractionary business cycle phases in post 1950 U.S. Non-structural VAR models of monthly industrial production and...

This paper exploits an observed business cycle asymmetry, namely, a systematic shift in the dynamic relationship between output growth and an index for financial market conditions across expansionary and contractionary periods, to forecast monthly growth in industrial production. A bivariate...

We examine the quantitative implications of government fiscal policy in a discrete-time one-sector growth model with a productive externality that generates social increasing returns to scale. Starting from a laissez-faire economy that exhibits an indeterminate steady state (a sink), we show...