Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions...

We examine the properties of house price fluctuations across 18 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We ask two specific questions: First, how synchronized are housing cycles across these countries? Second, what are the main shocks driving movements in global house prices? To address these...

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying factor loadings and stochastic volatility in both the latent factors and idiosyncratic components. We employ this new measurement tool to study the evolution of international business cycles in the post-Bretton Woods period, using a panel of...

We develop a new model of cycles and crises in emerging markets, featuring an occasionally binding borrowing constraint and stochastic volatility, and estimate it with quarterly data for Mexico since 1981. We propose an endogenous regime‐switching formulation of the occasionally binding...

We explore the influence of city-level business cycle fluctuations on crime in 20 large cities in the United States. Our monthly time series analysis considers seven crimes over an approximately 20-year period: murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. Short-run...

We investigate the global dynamics of RBC models with production externalities. We confirm that purely local analysis does not tell the full story. With externalities smaller than required for local indeterminacy, local analysis shows the steady state to be a saddle, implying a unique...

This comment discusses Harding and Pagan's (2007) article that advocates modeling the NBER business cycle chronology as the outcome of the two-quarter rule. The comment shows that the two-quarter rule does not fare well as a description of the decision-making of the NBER with real-time data...