We develop a model of international portfolio choice in complete and incomplete markets with stochastic covariance between financial asset returns and exchange rates. The optimal investment strategies are derived in closed form. We estimate the model parameters and illustrate the optimal...

This paper proposes a preference-based general equilibrium model that explains various pricing features of currency and currency options. The central ingredients are i) a variable disaster component that is highly but imperfectly shared across countries, and ii) the separation of EIS from risk...

This paper proposes a preference-based general equilibrium model that explains various pricing features of currency and currency options. The central ingredients are i) a variable disaster component that is highly but imperfectly shared across countries; and ii) the separation of EIS from risk...

We analyze the intertemporal stability of excess returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true, out-of-sample tests on previously studied rules. The excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining. But these profit...

We identify a global risk factor in the cross-section of implied volatility returns in currency markets. A zero-cost strategy that buys forward volatility agreements with downward sloping implied volatility curves and sells those with upward slopes - volatility carry strategy - generates...

The downside risk CAPM (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns....

In this paper, we examine the economic value of a text-based measure of financial integration. Our attention measure of financial integration is a strong positive predictor of currency excess returns. Specifically, the financial integration measure is positively priced in the cross-section of...

Rational expectation equilibrium (REE) models were considerably developed over the past 40 years. However, still relatively little has been done on their empirical applications, private signals being unobservable. We propose a new methodology, theoretically premised, to reconstitute these...

In this paper, I develop a model in which risk-averse investors possess private information regarding both a stock's expected payoff and its risk. These investors trade in the stock and a derivative whose payoff is driven by the stock's risk. In equilibrium, the derivative is used to speculate...

If investors are differently informed about the payoff of market-traded securities, then the traditional market portfolio is not a relevant benchmark for testing the CAPM. Each investor appraises expected returns and builds his optimal portfolio conditionally on his information. Which proxy to...