We develop a new option pricing framework that tightly integrates with how institutional investors manage options positions. The framework starts with the near-term dynamics of the implied volatility surface and derives no-arbitrage constraints on its current shape. Within this framework, we...

Asset pricing tests often replace ex ante return expectation with ex post realization. The large deviation between the two drastically weakens the power of these tests. This paper proposes to use analysts consensus price target for a stock as the market expectation of the stock's future price to...

This paper proposes a linear option pricing model by imposing common market pricing on decentralized risk exposure estimates across option contracts underlying the same security. The model embeds historical moment estimators to anchor the breakeven contribution of each risk source. A...