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We develop a new model where the dynamic structure of the asset price, after the fundamental value is removed, is subject to two different regimes. One regime reflects the normal period where the asset price divided by the dividend is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process around a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012973479
and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting and option pricing …The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066907
greater risk-free rate volatility. But raising the prior uncertainty on dividend growth rates has ambiguous effects on the … a parsimonious set of prior parameters, the model generates a sizeable equity premium and a low risk-free rate even with … a power utility function, low risk aversion, and absence of persistence in growth rates. Raising the prior uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150931
endogenous term premium. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and … analytical decomposition to illustrate how multiple distinct endogenous risk wedges account for these differences. Supply and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014362538
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705391
Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425011
-varying volatility are preferred to the long-run risk model. We analyze asset pricing implications of the estimated models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780610
In this paper, I build a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and estimate it using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. I use the results in order to examine how asset prices and macroeconomic quantities respond to the di erent shocks in the economy. Fluctuations in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013121340
dynamics of asset betas and market prices of risk (MPR). First, conditional betas are estimated nonparametrically for each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125303
of the causes of systematic risk and shows that (i) network exposures act as an inflating factor for systematic exposure …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011598385