The formulation of the Black-Litterman model as a Bayesian mixed estimation approach allows for computing the posterior expected returns taking into account the views of investor on future returns. When the views turn out to be wrong, the resulting portfolio may lead to losses. Sometimes, it may...

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that bets on CIP violations...

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of constraints on intermediaries, and the risk that these constraints tighten is priced. We demonstrate in an intermediary-based asset pricing model that violations of no-arbitrage such as covered interest rate parity (CIP)...