Conventional financial theory considers ex-ante that risk, generally measured by the volatility, has to be appropriately rewarded by expected returns. In modern financial markets, there are countless quantitative and systematic strategies which may test and eventually lead to excess returns when...

I use classification-based machine-learning methods to decompose 32 anomaly payoffsinto risk exposures and mispricing. The component driven by risk earns statistically insignificantreturns, despite its efficacy in explaining the time-series variation in anomaly payoffs.The mispricing component...

Reference-day risk has been previously identified as a type of sampling variation phenomenon, and its effect on the estimation of stock returns and their volatility and market betas have been documented. Using a dataset of daily equity mutual fund returns, we extend previous studies to analyze...

Companies have overlapping exposures to many different features that might plausibly affect their returns, like whether they're involved in a crowded trade, whether they're mentioned in an M&A rumor, or whether their supplier recently missed an earnings forecast. Yet, at any point in time, only...

We discuss the finding that cross-sectional characteristic based models have yielded portfolios with higher excess monthly returns but lower risk than their arbitrage pricing theory counterparts in an analysis of equity returns of stocks listed on the JSE. Under the assumption of general...

Before information φ arrives, market observers must be uncertain whether the stock price conditioned on φ will be higher or lower than the current price. Otherwise there is an obvious arbitrage opportunity. By assuming this minimal condition of efficient markets, it is shown under the...

In this paper, we revisit the question whether the Fama-French factors are manifestations of distress risk premiums. To this end, we develop new tests specifically aimed at dissecting the Fama-French factor returns from a distress risk premium. While we find that small-cap and value exposures...

Due to arbitrage risk asymmetries, the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is positive (negative) among overpriced (underpriced) stocks. We offer a new active anomaly-selection strategy that capitalizes on this effect. To this end, we consider eleven equity anomalies in...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

We investigate the pricing of systematic tail risk measured by tail beta in the Chinese equity market. Using an array of tests, we examine the performance of more than 3,300 stocks for the years 1999 through 2018. Contrary to evidence from developed markets, we demonstrate a strong negative...