In this paper we investigate risk premiums in commodity convenience yields. The analysis consists of two steps. First, we use a three-factor model to extract monthly convenience yields from a broad sample of commodity futures. Second, we estimate multi-factor asset pricing models with...

We study the links between expectations, fundamentals, and asset returns using the rich empirical setup offered by commodity markets. We find that survey-based expectations predict future fundamentals, but are not significant predictors of future returns. Expectations of returns are correlated...

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

This paper investigates the relation between risk-free rates and ex-ante market volatility. It derives a theoretical model implying a negative linear relation between risk-free rates and variance futures prices. The latter are employed as a direct market-based ex-ante estimate of risk-neutral...

We study the implications of recent advances in the asset pricing literature on investment, and vice versa in a DSGE model with non-trivial heterogeneity in production units, lumpy investment, and long run productivity risk. We make three contributions. First, for aggregate asset pricing,...

We recover a stochastic discount factor (SDF) for asset returns from a firm’s investment Euler equation. Given a parametric statistical specification of the SDF and profitability process, we solve for the firms’ optimal investment decision with approximate analytical solutions and provide a...

We develop a pure production-based asset pricing model, in which a representative firm conducts research and development (R&D) investment to try to increase future productivity. The firm has to make a trade-off between gain and loss of R&D investment. With the ability that the firm can transform...

In standard production models wage volatility is far too high and equity volatility is far too low. A simple modification - sticky wages due to infrequent resetting together with a CES production function - leads to both (i) smoother wages and (ii) higher equity volatility. Furthermore, the...

Previous studies show that firms with low inventory growth outperform firms with high inventory growth in the cross-section of publicly traded firms. In addition, inventory investment is volatile and procyclical, and inventory-to-sales is persistent and countercyclical. We embed an inventory...