The horizon effect in the long-run predictive relationship between market excess return and historical market variance is investigated. To this end, the asymptotic multivariate distribution of the term structure of risk-return trade-offs is derived, accounting for short- and long-memory in the...

We provide a multi-horizon characterization of the strength of the relationship between market realized variance components, namely continuous volatility and jump, and future market excess return. Building on quadratic variation theory, we find that continuous volatility is a key driver of...

Via the well-known financial leverage effect, decreases in stock prices cause an increase in the levered equity beta for a given unlevered equity beta. However, as growth options are more volatile and have higher risk than assets in place, a price decrease may decrease the unlevered equity beta...

Realized variance can be broken down into continuous volatility and jumps. We show that these two components have very different predictive powers on future long-term excess stock market returns. While continuous volatility is a key driver of medium to long-term risk-return relationships, jumps...