The imbalanced, yet mutually beneficial, trading relationship between the United States and Asia has long been one of international finance’s most perplexing mysteries. Although the United States continues to post a substantial trade deficit—and China reaps the benefits of a surplus—the...

This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data disaggregated by direction and type between Q1 1990 and Q4 2015 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...