We analyse the effect of mean-reverting cash flows on the costs of shareholder-bondholder conflicts arising from partially debt-financed investments. In a partial equilibrium setting we find that such agency costs are significantly lower under mean-reverting (MR) dynamics, when compared to the...

Standard early warning models to predict bank failures cannot be estimated during periods of few or zero failures, precluding any updating of such models during times of good performance. Here we address this problem using an alternative approach, forecasting the simple leverage ratio...