Background An econometric analysis of the twin deficit hypothesis is of special importance for the Republic of North Macedonia in view of its perspective membership in the European Union and from the point of view of its macroeconomic stability in the long run. Objectives The objective of this...

We estimate the causal impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and international commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870 to...

We estimate the causal impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and international commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870 to...

In an effort to address the lacuna in leading indicator studies of African economies and Nigeria in particular, this paper examines the causal relationships among stock market prices, real GDP and the index of industrial production in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 1984Q1 to 2008Q4. Granger...

Our study extends on conventional measures of contagion defined as a marked increase of cross-market correlation by directly investigating changing causality pattern by using the Granger-causality methodology. Our results show that the Asian crisis first established new and changed causality...

This paper aims to find deterministic factors of recent crisis in East Asia and Latin America by conducting empirical tests for each crisis-hit country instead of analyzing the panel data. In particular, the focus of the study lies in verifying whether economic fundamentals matter as a common...

By focusing on the episodes of substantial capital account liberalisation and adopting a new methodology, this paper provides new evidence on the dilemma and global financial cycle theory. I first identify the capital account liberalisation episodes for 95 countries from 1970 to 2016, and then...