We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has...

This paper studies China's four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China's growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist...

Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample modelbased forecasts of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation....

In his Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations Adam Smith (1776) considered the phenomenon of division of labor so enormously significant for the creation of a nation’s wealth that he devoted the first three chapters of his book to an investigation of this process. This is...

Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index...

This paper studies China’s four-fold increase in per capita GDP relative to the U.S. between 1995 and 2019. First, we argue that China’s growth pattern is very similar to that of several other East Asia economies that initially grew very quickly. Second, we show that a minimalist...

Using adata fundamentalist approach,ʺ this study revisits the long debate about Chinas growth performance by seriously tackling the existing data problems that have been the major obstacles to a proper assessment of Chinas growth performance. First, this study examines and adjusts the serious...

Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample modelbased forecasts of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and consumer price index inflation....

Given the background of financial disintermediation and interest rate marketization, the assets of China’s commercial banks can be divided into traditional credit assets, whose rates of return are controlled by the supervision department, and financial assets, whose rates of return fluctuate...

The relationship between consumption and income is an annoying problem which have not an accepted conclusion in advanced macroeconomic textbooks hereunto. One contribution to this theme in this paper is to establish a new analytical framework by integrating the neoclassic dynamic macroeconomic...