We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

Previous studies have extensively confirmed that superstition has a wide range of impacts on economically consequential decisions. The underlying mechanisms, however, remain largely unexplored. In particular, superstitions can influence either people’s endogenous risk preferences or subjective...

We investigate the impacts of new COVID-19 infections on stock returns within China's unique zero-COVID policy framework. We document a remarkable negative pattern: a COVID-19 outbreak within a city adversely affects the performance of local firms in a nonlinear fashion. This effect intensifies...