Using Credit Default Swap spreads, we construct a forward-looking, market-implied carbon risk factor and show that carbon risk affects firms' credit spread. The effect is larger for European than North American firms and varies substantially across industries, suggesting the market recognises...

This paper explores how the need to transition to a low-carbon economy influences firm credit risk. It develops a novel dataset which augments data on firms' green-house gas emissions over time with information on climate disclosure practices and forward-looking emission reduction targets,...

This paper explores how the need to transition to a low-carbon economy influences credit risk. It develops a novel dataset covering firms' greenhouse gas emissions over time alongside information on strategies for managing transition risk, including climate disclosure practices and...

We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices;...

Climate change adaptation efforts are heavily dependent on a country's fiscal capacity and the associated costs of undertaking adaptation policies. The current accumulation of high debt levels in emerging and low-income developing countries, which are disproportionately affected by climate...

We find that banks' credit exposures to transition risks are modest. We build on the estimated sectoral effects of climate transition policies from general equilibrium models. Even when we consider the strictest policies or the most adverse scenarios, exposures do not exceed 14 percent of banks'...

We study whether the credit default swap (CDS) spreads of firms reflect the risk from climate transition. We first construct a climate transition risk (CTR) factor by using information on the vulnerability of a firm's value to the transition to a low-carbon economy. We then document how this...

Climate change could impose systemic risks upon the financial sector, either via disruptions in economic activity resulting from the physical impacts of climate change or changes in policies as the economy transitions to a less carbon-intensive environment. We develop a stress testing procedure...

I propose a simple indicator of climate-related transition risks of banks’ lending activity based on transaction-level loan data. The underlying idea is that the higher the greenhouse gas intensity of an economic activity (and so a debtor), the higher its transition risk. Recent Hungarian...

The European low-carbon transition began in the last few decades and is accelerating to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper examines how climate-related transition indicators of a large European corporate firm relate to its CDS-implied credit risk across various time horizons....