How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the unconditional probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios....

We show that several of the most important economic models of climate change produce climate dynamics inconsistent with the current crop of models in climate science. First, most economic models exhibit far too long a delay between an impulse of CO2 emissions and warming. Second, few economic...

The optimal transition to a low-carbon economy must account for adjustment costs in switching from dirty to clean capital, technological progress, and economic and climatic shocks. We study the low-carbon transition using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with emissions abatement...

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide key inputs to decision-makers on economically efficient climate policies, and technical change is one of the key assumptions in any IAM that estimates mitigation costs. We conduct a systematic survey of how technical change is currently represented in...