Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time-series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...

In static single equation cointegration regression models the OLS estimator will have a non-standard distribution unless regressors are strictly exogenous. In the literature a number of estimators have been suggested to deal with this problem, especially by the use of semi-nonparametric...

The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is...

This paper presents likelihood analysis of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregression with piecewise linear deterministic terms. Limiting behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators are derived, which is used to further derive the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio statistic for...

In this paper we develop a regime switching model which can generate long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states. This property is relevant in a number of cases. For instance, the deregulated market for electricity power in the Nordic countries is characterized by...

This paper studies cointegration in non-linear error correction models characterized by discontinuous and regime-dependent error correction and variance specifications. In addition the models allow for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) type specifications of the variance. The...

We derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests. The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable, are...

This paper proposes a sequential procedure to determine the common cointegration rank of panels of cointegrated VARs. It shows how a panel of cointegrated VARs can be transformed in a set of independent individual models. The likelihood function of the transformed panel is the sum of the...