Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside...

This paper investigates the causal impact of non-state armed groups on local institutions during the armed conflict in Colombia, and tests competing theoretical mechanisms that may shape such effect. Our identification strategy is based on the construction of contiguous-pairs of rural...

This paper estimates the effect that exposure to armed conflict has on school drop-out and labor decisions of Colombian children between the ages of six and seventeen. We use a duration analysis methodology, complemented by biprobit estimations. Both approaches take into account the possible...

This paper explores the causes of displacement during civil wars. Recent scholarship has shown that conventional civil wars – those in which forces are relatively balanced – and irregular civil wars – those in which one side is substantially stronger than the other – exhibit different...

Forty years of low-intensity internal armed conflict have made Colombia home to over 3 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), the world’s largest population. The effect of violence on a child’s education is of particular concern because of the critical role that education plays in...