There is a growing literature examining futures based trading strategies and the performance of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). In this paper, we test the validity of three key assumptions used in these studies. The validity of basing conclusions on analysis of synthetic rather than market...

We use daily positions of futures market participants to identify informed traders. These data cover the period from 2000 to mid-2009 and contain 8,921 unique traders. We identify between 94 and 230 traders as overnight informed and 91 as intraday informed with little overlap between these two...

The CME Globex Corn futures Time and Sales data, during the United States Department of Agriculture, USDA, news, are studied. The price fluctuations of high frequency and magnitude resemble explosions caused by chemical or nuclear branched chain reactions. The structure of the jumps and...

I develop and test a model to study the interaction between the commodity and stock markets. This study attempts to clarify the debate about the effect of financialization on commodity markets. Theoretically, the futures risk premium is determined by hedging pressure, stock market returns, and...

The detrended implied volatility of commodity options (VOL) forecasts the cross section of the commodity futures returns significantly. A zero-cost strategy that is long in low VOL and short in high VOL commodities yields an annualized return of 12.66% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.69. Notably, the...

This research studies determinants of silver futures price volatility in Thailand Futures Exchange using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model. The sample data consist of daily closing price, volume, and open interest of silver futures from the period June 21, 2011 to...

According to the macro-econometric literature, the impact of exogenous oil price shocks on Inflation have greatly increased in the last two decades throughout OECD countries while the persistence of those shocks on long-term inflation, namely core inflation, has dramatically decreased. In the...

Typically, three types of implied volatility smiles are seen in commodity options: the reverse skew, the smile, and the forward skew. I put forward an economic explanation for all three types of implied volatility smiles based on the idea that a commodity call option is valued in analogy with...