We show the importance of accounting for political risk to understand forward-looking price volatility in agricultural markets. We propose a theoretical model that shows uncertainty about the future world price of staple foods is positively related to the likelihood (and, counterintuitively, is...

We use a unique, non-public dataset of trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets' financialization in the past decade. We then show that the correlation between the rates of return on investible commodity and equity indices rises amid...

From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty — but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began...

From 1977 through April 2019, USDA published monthly season-average price (SAP) forecasts for key agricultural commodities in the form of intervals meant to indicate forecasters' uncertainty, but without attaching a confidence level. In May 2019, USDA eliminated the intervals and began...

We use a unique, non-public dataset of individual trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets' financialization in the past decade. We then show that the correlation between the rates of return on commodities and equities rises amid greater...