We investigate if house prices are affected by overconfidence of households who predict house prices using imperfect public information about economic outlook. For this purpose, we develop a new measure of household overconfidence in the Bayesian framework. For the three variables we test –...

We investigate the effects of arbitrageurs' behavioral biases on cross-sectional equity returns. We find evidence that profits of equity market neutral hedge portfolios are positively affected by overconfidence, the effects of which are not subsequently reversed. Further we discover that signals...