This poster reports on three new experiments concerning the effect of the choice procedure, or "half-range method," of probability assessment, which forces the subject to make a binary choice between propositions prior to expressing a probability. These studies show that shortening the time...

Two procedures for eliciting probability judgments are compared. In the choice method, subject answers a yes/no question and then states a probability that his/her answer is correct. In the no-choice method, subject states his/her probability that a given proposition is true. Previous...